EGYPT CRISIS DEEPENS – AT 4:56 P.M. ET:  The Army announces it will  not fire on protesters, forcing the government to offer negotiations.  From The New York Times:

CAIRO — The political forces aligned against President Hosni Mubarak appeared to strengthen sharply Monday when the Army said for the first time that it would not fire on the protesters who have convulsed Egypt for a week demanding his resignation. The announcement was shortly followed by the government’s first offer to talk to the protest leaders.

Egypt’s new vice president said on state television that he had been authorized to open a dialogue with the opposition for constitutional and political reforms. The vice president, Omar Suleiman, did not offer any further details.

It was not immediately clear who Mr. Suleiman was addressing his offer to, or whether the opposition would accept. Throughout the protests, the overriding demand of the protesters has been Mr. Mubarak’s resignation.

But the announcement came after Mr. Mubarak appeared to lose a major leverage of power: The Egyptian Army announced that it would not fire on protesters, even as tens of thousands of people gathered in central Liberation Square for a seventh day to demand his resignation.

The extraordinary announcement — delivered on state TV with no elaboration by the Army’s official spokesman — declared that “freedom of expression through peaceful means is guaranteed to everybody.” Yet, coming from a government dominated by former military officers, including Mr. Mubarak, it raised as many questions as it answered.

As we reported earlier, opposition leaders have called for a million Egyptians to gather in the streets tomorrow to protest.  If the offer of dialogue is turned down, as it likely will be, it's hard to see how Mubarak can survive politically.

At the same time, some Israeli political leaders and observers are expressing increasing dismay at the speed with which America is abandoning the Mubarak government, a firm American ally.  The Israelis see this as a repeat of the mistakes that Carter made in dumping the Shah of Iran in the 1970s, a step that led to the extremist government in place in Tehran today. 

Sometimes we forget, in the firm and stable United States, that democracy and justice are two different concepts, and democracy and wisdom are emphatically too different concepts.  In the Middle East they like to use the phrase, "one man, one vote, one time," to describe how democracy has sometimes worked in that region. 

We are in very dangerous waters.  The administration must do a balancing act.  It is not in a good position, and the man at the top is known for weakness.

January 31, 2011